Weather Predictors

I saw a woolly bear caterpillar crawling across my driveway the other day and wondered about the upcoming weather.  I remembered the old folktale that you could predict the weather by the thickness of the brown band.  “The wider the brown band compared to the black band, the milder the winter.”  Just to be sure, I looked it up on Google and found an interesting article.  You can see the web link below under the title “Woolly Bear Caterpillar”.

You can also see two photos at the left. The one on top with the leaf is from the web and the one on the bottom is from my driveway. Although the brown band is bigger than the black in both photos, there is more black in my driveway photo. Both photos would predict a milder winter but colder in the driveway photo. Is this pure science or what?

Since my curiosity was now peaked, I looked up other weather predictors and found the traditional Farmer’s Almanac, A Pig’s Spleen, Insect Movements, and Cloud Types, etc. could be used to predict the upcoming weather season.

The Farmer’s Almanac has been around for a lot of years and has about a 70% accuracy. “It predicts a colder and drier winter this season (2013-2014)”. They say that the Almanac gets its predictions from analysis of yearly weather patterns as well as a “guarded secret formula”. Similarly, the traditional folklore predictions have been passed down through the generations as farmers watched the skies and sailors watched the seas.  My favourite is “Red skies in the morning, sailors taking warning. Red skies at night sailors delight”.

You can see some other “folklore weather sayings” at the web link below …

http://www.almanac.com/content/weather-predicting-do-it-yourself   Before the fancy weather instruments of today, families would predict upcoming weather by looking at the sky. The weather patterns observed over many years seemed to be good predictors of the upcoming weather. The list below includes a few examples of the weather proverbs. (“The higher the clouds, the finer the weather - Clear Moon, frost soon -When clouds appear like towers, the Earth is refreshed by frequent showers - Rainbow in the morning gives you fair warning - Ring around the moon? Rain real soon - Rain foretold, long last. Short notice, soon will pass”.)

Another more comprehensive list of weather proverbs or rhyming forecasts can be found at the web link ….  http://tww.id.au/weather/forecast.html   The list includes weather rhymes for (clouds, wind, plants, night, seasons, etc.)  Some examples are (“Wind from the east fish bite least, wind from the west fish bite best - When Windows won't open, And the salt clogs the shaker, The weather will favour the umbrella maker!”)

Weather is a finicky thing and even with the best weather instruments, present day weather men only make predictions based on their best guess. My old favourite is to put my wet finger in the air to tell which way the wind is blowing. If it is from the west and there are low clouds, rain will be here soon.

Do you have any old time weather predictors?

Comments always welcome:  ….. markryan82@comcast.net.

Other Reference

Farmer’s Almanac

http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/1  - Winter will be colder and drier than normal, with below-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will be from Christmas through early January and in mid-January and early, mid-, and late February. The snowiest periods will be in mid-November, mid- to late December, mid- to late February, and early March.

Woolly Caterpillar

http://m.almanac.com/content/predicting-winter-weather-woolly-bear-caterpillars
The tiger moth caterpillar has black ends and a reddish brown middle.  Folklore has it that the larger the brown segment compared to the black is a predictor of a milder winter.
Comments to the Woolly Bear Caterpillar Article
There are mixed comments to the article from various readers.  I guess it all depends on your experience and in which part of the United States that you are located. One comment from Hardyville,Va states the following: “I have watched the Woolly Worm for years but have not gotten any answers about the weather.  I find the Quantity of Nuts and wild berries that are produced, the thickness of the shells are a better clue as to the temperature of the winter.  Also the closer to the ground that the wasps and hornets build their nests in the summer the colder it will be in the winter. I think that folks in different areas have their own special ways of determining how they think the weather is forecasted in that area.”

Predicting Weather With A Pig Spleen
http://www.almanac.com/content/predicting-weather-pig-spleen
When farmers would slaughter pigs in the fall, the shape of the spleen was used to predict the upcoming winter. The bulges and thickness of the spleen from top to bottom were a sign of colder changing weather. These folklore methods were part of the Scandinavian heritage of Midwestern farmers.

 

 

Weather and Natural Disaster Alert Info

Well, better late than never for this weather blog. Hope you can use some info now or in the future. I have been following the weather for last few days and listening to all the weather alerts just like everyone else. As Hurricane Irene bears down on the northeast, it becomes more and more of a reality and the strike zones have been pin pointed quite accurately along the eastern seaboard. Although it has been decreased to a tropical storm in the Boston area, we could still have torrential rain and high wind gusts and flooding, so be safe and keep alert.
I have been looking on the internet for weather related information and have accumulated a few interesting web sites that maybe helpful now and in the future when other disasters occur. Recently we have experienced earthquakes and now a hurricane unlike what we have seen for 25 years. Just click on the web sites below for further info.

The NOAA web site listed below with the image shown at left top, shows some wind gust possibilities for the Boston area. They predict that the wind gust speed should be at its highest about 2PM on Sunday afternoon and approach 70 mph. The web site is interactive and you can get different kinds of weather maps. It’s a Great resource. Try it.

I also got a great portable radio as a gift once that works with battery, solar and crank up. It can get NOAA weather alerts, FM, AM, and SW. It’s a Voyager Radio and sells for about $49 on Amazon.com.

Safety Tips:

Like everyone else, I have done some preparation for the hurricane and have made a list below for your information.
1. Clear all loose items around the yard that might fly around in the wind and cause damage.
2. Make sure you have an emergency kit with essential supplies in case the lights go out and there is no power for a few days or longer. (first aid kit, tape, flashlight, extra batteries, candles, matches, can food, can opener, water, battery powered radio, sanitation and personal hygiene items, copies of personal documents, extra cash, maps of area, cell phone with charges (home and car), multipurpose tool, medications, medical information, emergency blankets, towels and other personal items.
3. Make an emergency plan with contact phone numbers to reach help or relatives and a place to meet if you are separated from family.
4. Get enough gasoline for the car and emergency generator. There won’t be any after the storm if the electric pumps don’t work.

Reference Web Sites
Voyager Radio at Amazon.com

http://www.amazon.com/Kaito-Electronics-KA500GRN-Voyager-Emergency/dp/B001EUG3II/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1314456945&sr=8-1

Emergency Contact Card

http://www.redcross.org/www-files/Documents/pdf/Preparedness/ECCard.pdf

Red Cross Make A Plan

http://www.redcross.org/www-files/Documents/pdf/Preparedness/checklists/Be_Red_Cross_Ready.pdf

Emergency Evacuation Map- Mapquest.com (Draw an evacuation route on the map.)

http://www.mapquest.com/

Hurricane Tracking Map – Saturday 12 noon – (8-27-11)

http://weather.boston.cbslocal.com/tropical/tracking/at201109.html

Graphical Probability Weather Map – National Weather Service -NOAA

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/massachusettsLoop.php#tabs

Comments always welcome:  markryan82@comcast.net

3rd Flood of March 2010

Hi All

Well the water is back again. The last rain storm on Monday-Wednesday (3-28 to 3-31-10) brought more water into my basement after I cleaned it up, wet vacuum and mop clean with bleach and dry. Last night I had to put a third pump right on the floor in the basement. I have two other sump pumps below the floor in sump holes. It’s a finished family room but everything had been lifted up on boxes and shelves. Minimal damage. But need to dry it all out again with open widows and fans and more bleach and mop.

I heard on the news today that we have broken the all time record for the wettest month ever in Boston since they have kept records from the late 1800s.

The water table in my neighborhood is almost at ground level now since the Shawsheen River went passed flood stage last night. All the houses in the neighborhood have pumps going with hoses out to the street and drains.

The Shawsheen River is down the street from me and has washed out the road and bridge. Several houses down near the river are flooded with water up to the first floor.

You can see some photos and video at the web site below.

Flicker.com - Photos, Shawsheen River, Flooding, 3-31-10
http://www.flickr.com/photos/48847342@N03/?saved=1

They say the sun will be out tomorrow and it may be near 80 degrees on Sunday.
Happy Easter . They say Easter is a day of rebirth. Let’s hope so.

Mark

The Great Flood of March 2010

The Great Flood of March 2010 – (Water, Pumps and Generators)
The weather has certainly been extreme this year. Snow and ice this winter all across the country and now spring flooding in the Midwest, rain in Florida and heavy rain in the Northeast. Is it just a change in weather patterns or is it Global Warming?

Well it’s another rain event today and tomorrow in my neighborhood. The weather stations are predicting up to 3 inches more where I live in the Wilmington, MA. Maybe we will be lucky and the ground will absorb most of it.

“I spoke too soon. Although it rained last night, it stopped this morning and my basement was dry when I started writing this article. However, on Tuesday afternoon the water started coming up through the basement floor again and unfortunately they are predicting more rain tonight.”

When the local rivers flooded last week, we got about 8 inches of rain and as a result the water table went up and I could see large water puddles accumulating in my neighbor’s back yards. That is an indication that the water table is near ground level and basement flooding is eminent.

The Shawsheen River is located at the end of my street and broke a high water record last week of 10.8 feet. After the river floods, it usually takes another day for the water table to rise and nearby basements to flood. It then takes about a week for the water to recede and basements to dry out again.

Although I had two sump pumps going continuously since the rain last week, I still got a couple inches of water on the basement floor. Since the basement is partially finished I put all the furniture up on blocks and did not sustain any permanent damage.

After a week, the water table went down and I used a wet-vacuum to suck up all the excess water and dry the floor. Next I washed the floor with a 20% mix of bleach and water with a mop to kill any mold that might grow. You need to do this in a well ventilated basement with fans going and windows open. (I guess I will have to do it again in a couple of days.)

As I talked with neighbors along my street there are some who had a lot of water in their basements and some with no water. Some houses are built higher up and others lower but there seems to be no connection to whether or not they get water. Mother Nature just does whatever she wants.

Besides the height of the water table, it must also be the composition of the underground soil that will either absorb or divert the ground water flow toward or away from your house. I guess you need to know if your house is built on ground which is mostly sand, clay, an old peat bog or solid granite.

Most houses in my area have sump pumps installed in their basements to pump water from under the basement floor and out of the house. This usually keeps most basements dry most of the time except in extreme situations like this one. The outlet pipe from the sump pump should then be connected to a long hose or pipe that leads to the street sewer system or a drainage catch basin so that water is carried safely away from your property.

Some people will have their sump pump drop the water outside their basement window or in their backyard where it enters the ground again and goes right back into their basement to start over again. Although that seems to be just common sense, sometimes people have to learn by their mistakes.

Another problem is to determine where the water is coming from. Is it surface water that is coming off your house roof during heavy rain or from the street or a local stream and then pouring into your basement from above ground? Or is it ground water rising up through the basement floor from a high water table? If its surface water, you can install drain gutters and down spouts to take the water away from the foundation. You can also have the soil next to the house graded and sloped away from your foundation.

Although most good sump pumps will take care of the basement water, you also have to worry about an electric power outage. In a storm, trees may topple and pull down power lines and cut off your electric power. Without electricity your sump pumps won’t work.

That is when you need to have a backup battery on the pump or a gasoline operated generator which will provide power for the pump or even the entire house. A battery will only last about 12 hours and then needs to be recharged. If the power is out longer than that, you will need a generator.

A few years ago I bought a gasoline operated generator and had an electrician wire it to my house and put it on a separate circuit breaker box. It is not automatic so I have to manually switch the power over from the electric company to the generator when needed.

I keep the generator outside near a tool shed. During a power outage lasting more than a few hours, I start the generator outside where heat and gas fumes are well ventilated. I then turn off the main circuit breaker panel in my basement and turn on the generator circuit breaker panel. In an instant I now have generator electric power for the sump pumps as well as most of the appliances in my house. Although I test the generator periodically I have never had to use it. I guess I have some luck.

“Rain, Rain Go Away. Come Again On A Dry Summer Day.”

Comments : email markryan82@comcast.net

Snow Job?

Is this a snow job? Is it spring yet? Have you had enough snow and cold? I heard on the news today that they had snow in London and no plows to clean the streets. The last time it snowed in London was 20 years ago. Extreme weather seems to be occurring all over the globe (ice, snow, rain, floods, mud slides, beach erosion).

From December 2008 through February 2009, we have had 10 days of plow-able snow in Wilmington, MA. That’s the number of times I have had to take out the shovels and snow blower to clean off the front stairs, walkways and driveway around my house. In addition, I also do the sidewalk leading to my neighbors (100 feet left and right) and most of the time, do another neighbor’s driveway. It normally takes me about three hours to clean the snow after a storm. It seems like there has been snow every week this winter.

You can see the past record of weather conditions and snow accumulation for your area at your local TV station web link or at Accuweather.com See the link at …… http://www.accuweather.com/
Just type in your zip code. You get the current weather and forecast. Go to bottom of page and select past month. (You can get data for the past two months). You can also get monthly averages (charts and graphs) in the Boston Globe printed at the beginning of the next month. The total amount so far for Wilmington, MA is 44.7 inches (December 25.3 and January 19.4).

Since I live in a suburban area near a school, we have the luxury (or curse) of having a sidewalk plow clean away the deep snow on the sidewalk. However, they normally plow the sidewalk the day after the storm and generally leave lumps of snow behind the plow as it goes by. Most of the time, I have cleaned the sidewalk before the plow and then need to clean it again after the plow.

Another chore is to shovel out the mailbox which is on a post at the edge of the sidewalk. The mail is delivered by mail truck that pulls up close to the mailbox to deposit the mail. If the snow or ice blocks the mailbox, you get no mail. Sometimes the street plows will drive in tandem to clean off the street and push the snow up onto the sidewalk, knocking off the mailbox from its post. I had mine knocked down several times. Ah, the joys of living in the burbs.

Living in the city is no better, since they plow the snow to either the even or odd side of the street which reduces the spaces available for parking. To solve the problem, neighbors shovel out their spots on the street and place a “decorative marker”, like a barrel of lawn chair, in the shoveled out area to claim the spot for their personal use. Many a fight has occurred protecting one’s “turf”.

After you have cleared the snow off the sidewalk or driveway, you need to check the house roof. Is the snow piling up too high? Will the roof support the extra weight? Do you have a roof with the proper pitch so the snow slides off naturally? Will the sun melt most of the snow before the next snow storm? Some flat roofs on businesses, schools and shopping centers have collapsed from the extra weight of snow.

If you are concerned with any of these problems, you probably have purchased a roof shovel. This tool has a shovel blade that is bent 90 degrees from the handle and allows you to pull the snow off the roof. These shovels also have long handles that can be extended to about 20 feet. If you have a ranch house with only one level, you can reach some of the roof snow from standing on the ground. If you have a two story or plus house, you need to use a ladder. This can be dangerous and may need professional help. Most roof areas cover 1000 + square feet on each side. That is a lot of snow to pull off the roof. You can see some photos of me clean snow after the 2-4-09 snow storm at the link …....
http://picasaweb.google.com/markryan312/Snow2409#

Another problem with leaving snow pile up on the roof is getting ice dams which I have explained in a previous BLOG. If the snow melts and latter refreezes, some ice may back up under the shingles and then melt on interior ceilings.

By this time of year, most people are getting a cabin fever as we remember how great it is to be outside in warmer weather. However, we only have a few more days to wait for the first day of spring on March 20th, which is about “40+” days away. Can you wait that long? To make matters worse, the ground hog saw his shadow, which means 6 more weeks of winter. Can you handle it? Are we getting SNOWED or what?